AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, AP Offensive Player of the Year: Cooper Kupp, AP Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Rushing Leader: Jonathan Taylor, 1811 Yds, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. If you are simply a box score watcher, nothing about Chris Godwins rookie season would have gotten you excited. Who are the potential sleepers of the 2023 NFL Draft? Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com Best and worst receiver seasons on short passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. The Next Gen Stats analytics team uses its newly launched Expected Return Yards model to identify the top 10 returners of the 2022 regular season. So, what can we do with this information, and why should we care? 20. The Saints' WR1 gained 326 yards while running outs, the most in the NFL. Its not very sensitive to outliers, which makes it sticky. NFL wide receiver rankings 2021. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. Ginn ran a, Not listed in the bottom five, but relevant based on his reputation: Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf ranked 66th out of 72 receivers by our measure of route versatility. The other three are kind of interesting. With the 2023 NFL Draft right around the corner, who are the can't-miss prospects in this talent crop? Jones never hit a 90-percent snap share last year and reached 80 percent of his teams snaps in only seven of 16 games. The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. Seals-Jones is a strong ADP value, currently being drafted in the 15th round in MFL10s. 1, Panthers' Bryce Young is all 'business now', Top picks Christian Gonzalez, Keion White reflect Patriots' ideal identity, Big takeaways from the NFL draft: A historic QB class, the rebuilt AFC South and new GMs thriving, NFL Nation sizes up all 259 draft selections, XFL semifinals: Defenders roll Sea Dragons, set up title showdown with Renegades. In an attempt to not inundate you, the reader, with number after number, I will try to make this concise and to the point. How would this formula work for Stills and Johnson? Receiving stats on intermediate passes for Michael Thomas and Julio Jones, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play. You won't want to miss a moment of the 2023 season! Danielr28 2 yr. ago. Conventional counting stats like receptions and receiving yards provide a way to measure an individual player's ability to catch and move the football, but they only tell part of the story. 2023 Superflex Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings (Fantasy Football), 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Fantasy Football), Fantasy Football Rankings: Dynasty Trade Value Chart (May 2023 Update), Dynasty Rookie Draft Primer: Quarterbacks (2023 Fantasy Football), Dynasty Rookie Sleepers: UDFAs (2023 Fantasy Football), Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Superflex, 4 Rounds (2023 Fantasy Football), Best Ball Strategy & Advice: Late-Round Quarterback (2023 Fantasy Football), Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. When talking about sticky statistics, we are talking about numbers that we can point to with a level of certainty of carrying over year to year. Not only is there a significant advantage to hitting the 2.00 yards per route run threshold in ones rookie year, but there is also a clear difference when that wide receiver ran at least 250 routes his rookie year. Root mean squared error 1.52, r-squared 0.61, mean absolute error 1.09. To avoid noise in the data from broken plays (during which pass catchers often stop running their assigned routes) and player movement after the catch (which would not tell us much about the efficacy of any given route), all routes were capped at either the moment the ball was passed forward or at a given time (4.6 seconds after the snap for wideout routes and 4 seconds after the snap for backfield routes) -- whichever came first. We looked at every WR with 60+ targets* from 2020. Regular-season passes of between 5 and 15 air yards. For example, why did only 11 of 12 wide receivers drafted since 2010 that ran 250 routes and had at least 2.00 yards per route run during their rookie years find future success? Full list of Mr. Irrelevants in NFL draft history: Is Brock Purdy already the best final pick? . The idea was that NFL Next Gen Stats tracking data could estimate the chance of a completion on a pass, given the locations, directions and speeds of relevant players. Basic Stats Advanced Stats Red Zone Stats Fantasy Stats. Also, there are several other factors considered in establishing the benchmark on each route. You don't currently have any notifications. Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. Who has the edge? For Hopkins, 125 of his 257 came after the catch. Among wide receivers (min. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? One way to try to answer the question is to look at how well a receiver creates and maintains separation from a defender. PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players. Gabriel Davis is a wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills. No, we're not talking about the Minneapolis Miracle. The story of the Cowboys scout and prospect son Dallas just drafted, Legacy pick: Cardinals take great-great-nephew of team's first-ever draft pick, Big takeaways from ESPN's new pass-catcher stats: A.J. Previous Season Next Season. Austin missed five games: weeks 4 and 5 against Denver and Washington, and then weeks 8 through ten against the Lions, Vikings, and Saints. The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft -- including two Georgia defenders selected by the Philadelphia Eagles. As were using air yards the vertical yards on a pass attempt relative to the line of scrimmage this bucket includes passes behind the line of scrimmage. Because he was below average for this data set, and everyone in the set gets regressed to the mean of the group, he benefits. RTMs are a set of four metrics we've named Open Score, Catch Score and YAC Score, plus the overall combination of those three. The data set includes all regular-season pass attempts from the last three seasons, excluding spikes and passes from punts and field goal formations. Totals Per Game. 25 games played) he ranks 29th in receiving fantasy points per game. This is the key to solve the problem: a receiver's openness is compared to the typical receiver's openness given the route, coverage, and depth, rather than the raw assessment. 1. For qualifying receivers, Open Score has a correlation coefficient of 0.61, where 1.0 would be perfect consistency and 0.0 would be no consistency at all. Which QB makes the list? 38) Yards Per Route Run. Brown such a special talent? We think this also makes sense. It was far below his 2020 form, which ended in him being one of the five most valuable wide receivers in the NFL, according to PFF WAR. I did include sacks when calculating routes per team pass attempt, so that seems to be the only explanation. In each of four seasons coached by Mike McCoy (now calling plays for the Cardinals), Antonio Gates totaled at least 85 targets. Since 2018, ESPN has introduced pass-rush, run-stop, pass-block and run-block player metrics. These were somewhat shorter outs, averaging just 8.3 air yards per target, but Thomas still found a way to make the most of them, gaining an average of 2.72 yards after the catch on routes that are typically assigned to finish near the sideline. NFL's Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Follow Nick Shook on Twitter @TheNickShook. Which view is correct? Looking at this historical data and also pairing it with metrics such as draft capital, breakout age, college dominator, etc. ranked him first among all wide receivers, creates and maintains separation from a defender, the conversation for best receiver in the league. Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals tight end Ricky Seals-Jones celebrates after catching a pass for a second quarter touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars at University of Phoenix Stadium. We also needed to decide when to measure receiver separation. 2 and 3 on this list). Here are the top-five seasons since 2017: The top-rated players mostly match our intuitive sense of great receivers, but there are more concrete ways of determining the usefulness of metrics. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. The next-closest players in that category were the Rams' Cooper Kupp (99) and the Browns' Jarvis Landry (96). The Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies 14 unheralded players who should be kept off the free agency market by their squads. While he didn't make the top three, one of my favorite receivers to watch run a hitch route is Odell Beckham Jr. because of how pronounced yet quick he is in his breakdown at the top of the route. Other players appear able to consistently create separation on short targets Jarvis Landry is one example but the value of Landrys targets as measured by EPA are much lower than those directed at Thomas. Source: NFL Next Gen Stats, ESPN Stats & Information Group. 2022 Wide Receiver Stat Busts - Slot Performance . What does that mean? As technology and the growth of the fantasy football community both continue to boom, so too do the metrics and measurables that present themselves for analysis. This approach is able to estimate each individual's contribution to overall effectiveness, accounting for the presence or absence of other players around them. Brown trails in yards (306 to 282) but posted a better catch rate above expectation (+22.5% to +7.9%), although he saw 14 fewer targets than Thomas. Green (32.8), Julio Jones (30.7), and Tyreek Hill (24.6). While there are some issues with survivorship bias here, Im not sure (1) how to get around them, and (2) that those concerns bias the results in a way thats more biased towards one of the variables were examining than the others. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. For more from John, check out his archive orfollow him@TheBauerClub. Unlike running backs, weight and height are correlated to wide receiver and tight end production, because height expands the player's catch radius. This can give us a small insight into wide receivers either with partial seasons (injury, etc.) In the three seasons for which we have Next Gen data, Thomas has regularly posted high EPA per play values on these short targets and has been above average in creating separation at the catch point in two of the past three seasons. The aforementioned play from last year's season opener came on a deep in route by Brown. Of course, Blackmon missed the first four games of the season for violating the NFLs substance abuse policy, and then received an indefinite suspension for again being in violation of that policy after the Jaguars eighth game of the year. Perhaps even Simpsons paradox caveats. Johnson's target ratio is no joking matter. It's pretty simple: Thomas wins in the short game and will make you pay if you don't stop him. These short passes, however, are where Michael Thomas frequently shines. Steve Johnson was the anti-Stills. Average number of seasons as a WR1/WR2 + >250 routes run during rookie year w/ at least 20 targets, Average number of seasons as a WR1/WR2 w/ at least 20 targets during their rookie year (no minimum route run threshold). Stat Type. With NFL+, stay connected throughout the rest of the NFL offseason with special content from Training Camp, Hall of Fame, and more! yards per route run by wide receiver ranks 2021. In fact, if we instituted a minimum of, say, 15 receptions on out routes, only DeAndre Hopkins (86.4%) and . Over the past three seasons, Jones totals 871 more yards than Hopkins despite running 317 fewer routes. At the individual player level, we can learn more about the micro nuances of route running. With our new route-classification model, we can evaluate which receivers are essentially the most predictable -- or different from the average. 101st. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY . Sports Info Solutions' charting allows us to break down receivers by their routes -- seeing which routes they run most often, and at which they are the most effective. It is also important to keep an eye on the changing landscape that is the NFL. 43), 11.5 (No. With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. YDS. This chart helps hammer that point home. Among the three metrics YPRR, Y/T, and TPRR its Targets Per Route Run thats the most consistent from year to year. The values corresponding to each route represent league averages over the last two seasons. From 2007 to 2012, there were 344 wide receivers who saw at least 40 targets in Year N, and then played for the same team and saw at least 40 targets in Year N+1. All four are a per-play rate metric, rather than a counting or cumulative stat. For instance, short passes are, on average, associated with more separation than deeper passes because a defenders top priority is to avoid getting beat deep. We know the Saints' Michael Thomas and Seahawks' Tyler Lockett are great receivers, but how do they perform on a per-route basis? So we need to account for depth of target and how far the QB had to throw the ball when we apportion credit for the separation a receiver got on a given play. Of his 301 total yards on in routes, 181 were gained after the catch. However, Thomas is ranked atop this group because of his three touchdowns scored on slants, and his catch rate of 87.9 percent is also best among any receiver with 10 or more targets in the NFL. Below, we'll reveal the top three receivers for eight different routes, and tell you why the No. Routes run ranked higher than targets for running backs, and though they ranked lower than targets for wide receivers and tight ends, routes run still ranked highly overall. Stefon Diggs can make the seemingly impossible a reality. For running backs, YAC Score accounts for about half of the overall score, with Catch Score the second largest component, followed by Open Score. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. And if it's not completed, he would be debited accordingly. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. CNNs allow us to engage with the spatial nature of our dataset (that is, where each player is on the field in a given play), while LSTM networks allow us to engage with the temporal nature of our dataset (what happens as the play develops over time). Our new Receiver Tracking Metrics (RTMs) use player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to analyze every route run -- including those that are untargeted -- and assess receiver performance in three distinct phases: getting open, contesting and making the catch, and generating yards after the catch (YAC). On its face, that seems like an outrageous question. He leads all non-quarterbacks in fantasy points per game over the past two seasons. Look, there he is again! Below are the 15 unique route types assigned to all route runners, based on their location when the ball is snapped. AVG . [1]I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But putting the quarterbacks issue aside, the question today is a more global one. In other words, only 47.4% of a receivers Yards per Route Run is predictive of his YPRR in Year N+1. He saw significant time in games sporadically throughout the year. How do we know which is which? Thats what we are doing here. Seriously, though, it can't be much of a surprise to see these three players at the top for this route. the drag). jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_4').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_4', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); using just their YPRR from 2013, we would project Stills at 1.45 [5]Because he was below average for this data set, and everyone in the set gets regressed to the mean of the group, he benefits. He was historically productive in 2019, in large part because he is excellent in the short game on routes like the cross (a.k.a. The lone outlier there is Robert Foster, and his situation clearly changed from 2018 to 2019. While thats not a great stat line, it is a pretty good stat line for a player who was still only getting about 20 snaps per game. Thomas did this while fighting through press coverage on 34 percent of his targets, too. While its unlikely well see Beasley see significant playing time in 2014, Im a little more interested in watching him now than I was before this post. RTMs also match up well with existing public benchmarks of receiver performance. And at the bottom of the list we find names like Robby Anderson, a free agent this offseason who reportedly drew few offers from teams; an aging Larry Fitzgerald; and the unsigned Kelvin Benjamin. One interesting insight from the adjustments is that quarterbacks have a large effect on the openness of receivers at pass arrival. 1 in the latest NFL Football Power Index? Who knows, but that at least explains why Jernigan was on the list. jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_5').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_5', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); and Johnson at 1.58 YPRR. Frequently Asked Questions about the NFL and Football, Pro-Football-Reference.com Blog and Articles, Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREE. In those six games, Beasley caught 21 passes for 210 yards. With Jermaine Gresham recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in Week 17, Arizona beat writers are projecting Seals-Jones to enter camp as the starter and with an expanded role in the offense. Ultimately, our separation model ending up including features that account for quarterback arm strength, the receivers separation at the time the QB targeted them, the horizontal and vertical position of the receiver on the field at the time of the throw, where the receiver lined up pre-snap, the distance to the goal line, the amount of break in the receivers route during the footballs journey through the air after it was released, the depth of the QBs drop, the number of other routes that were being run on the play, if the play was a play-action pass or a screen, and the number of deep safeties.3. Thomas was pressed 49% of the time on crossing routes, yet he posted a catch rate that was 24.9% above expectation on 29 targets. Well, the word useful will mean different things to different people. As previously discussed, Robert Foster hit those thresholds when it comes to yards per route run during his rookie year, but has yet to find fantasy relevance in the NFL. Of those, one was Atlantas Julio Jones, who ran routes on 93% of Atlantas passing plays through the first five games of the year, but missed the final eleven with a fractured foot. The resulting lists have reasonably strong face validity players at the top of the leaderboards tend to be widely regarded as good route runners suggesting SOE could be useful as a descriptive metric. 1-ranked player for each was the best running that particular route. Some plays and situations lend themselves to a lot or a little YAC, so YAC Score doesn't measure mere yards but rather the yards the receiver was able to generate beyond the expected amount. From the perspective of the receiver, however, he is a primary and direct influence on that very context. Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. We will report this metric as targets above expectation per 100 routes run (TAE100), which is simply the number of targets a receiver gains above an average receiver whenever he runs 100 routes. These three components also are blended to create an overall receiving metric. For example, we can see that A.J. Thomas' air-yards-per-target average was higher on crosses than his aforementioned overall average (9.6 to 8.1), and his catch rate above expectation was second to only Lockett among those with at least 20 targets on crosses. Introducing Receiver Tracking Metrics: How our new NFL stats can better rate pass-catchers, Fantasy football rankings for 2023 season, 10 fantasy football breakout players for 2023, Broncos pick up Jeudy's 5th-year rookie option, Bills ink vet Murray after passing on RBs in draft, Source: Ravens decline LB Queen's 2024 option, LB Barrett's 2-year-old daughter drowns in pool, Bengals' Ossai recovering from offseason surgery, Deion 'ashamed' after only 1 HBCU player drafted, Sources: NFL eyes May 11 to release schedule, Cowboys scout emotional as team drafts his son. Latest on Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN However, hes also somewhat at a detriment for fantasy, in that he runs a low number of routes per game. He finished in the top 20 in deep targets and red zone targets, but outside the top 30 in numerous stats; including an 18.8-percent target share (No. Since the most interesting routes to analyze are those that earned a target, there are two obvious points in a play to focus on: the moment the ball leaves the QBs hand and the moment the ball arrives at the receivers location. Then, in week 15, Cruz was injured in the third quarter against Seattle, and did not play again in 2014. The elements of savvy route running footwork, head and body fakes, disguising the intent of the route, changing direction sharply without losing speed all appear to be more reliable indicators of NFL skill and talent than speed. Is it more useful than Yards per Target? Whats more impressive to me is that Tony Romo threw to Beasley on 26% of his routes, which is an extremely high figure. How can a pass catcher win vs. press? Over the past two seasons, LeVeon Bell averaged more routes run per game (33.0) than all of A.J. He then has to catch the ball to gain additional yards. From 2010 to 2018, there have been 165 rookie wide receivers in the NFL who saw at least 20 targets in their rookie year. For the best in the game, these plays will occasionally pop for huge gains because of their elite speed and run-after-catch ability. Perhaps because of his success, Thomas has seen a steady increase in the number of targets at those depths. The metrics measure the degree to which the receiver exceeds or falls short of that benchmark. Route versatility calculation explanation: If Player A runs a go on 25 percent of routes, a hitch on 19 percent and an out on 12 percent, and the NFL averages are 22 percent, 18 percent and 10 percent respectively, the absolute difference from the average across those three routes would be 3 percent, 1 percent and 2 percent. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics. One number that does not carry that weight for wide receivers is yards after the catch. The fact that theres no competition for snaps within the backfield and that hes used in all phases of the game helps keep his upside higher than almost any other player in fantasy and means gamescript cant take him out of any game. With year-to-year R-squared values of around 0.3, these three metrics are the most stable existing metrics that measure wide receiver performance. There arent too many surprises there, but it might be interesting to compare that list to the True Receiving Yards leader board. The Next Gen Stats analytics team digs into three key free agency needs for every NFC team. Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? He also posted a catch rate above expectation of +14.7 percent on those routes. If we can establish the probability of a catch of a typical receiver, given all the contextual details of a pass route, including route type, depth, coverage and many other variables, we can set a benchmark of expected "openness" agnostic to the ability of the receiver to get open. Without success in the early part of the sequence, he wouldn't have many opportunities through the remainder of the process. Since depth of target is so important in determining separation, we grouped plays into buckets depending on whether a pass attempt was short, intermediate or deep and created an SOE leaderboard for each. Advanced stats offer insight into a Wide Receiver's performance beyond the standard box score. Using the Next Gen Stats Draft Model, Mike Band identifies eight prospects to target AFTER Round 1. 300 routes run). The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. Were there any indicators that could have pointed to such a breakout? The top five and bottom five most versatile route runners from the 2019 season among 72 wide receivers with at least 300 routes: This only scratches the surface of the analysis possible with our route recognition. With my hypothesis lined up, it was time to dig into the data. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? At the time, Jernigan had barely seen the field, so he hadnt run many routes, either. 2. receiving yards along with his target opportunities. Davis was immediately utilized, earning a 71.6-percent snap share with 454 routes run. Of Thomas' league-leading 299 yards gained on slants, 162 came after the catch. You don't currently have any notifications. Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus has shown that the best receivers in the league earn their targets all over the field, so its no surprise to see familiar names in the deep-target SOE ranks. In other words, the regression thinks Johnsons much more likely to maintain his elite TPRR than Stills is to maintain his elite Y/T. By no means am I suggesting that yards per route run is the only indicator of future success for a wide receiver in the NFL, but it is an integral piece of the puzzle. These include route type, depth of route, coverage type (Cover 3, Man 2 and so on), position at snap (wide, slot, tight, backfield), distance from sideline, time after snap, down/distance/yard line and whether or not the play featured play-action. They won't know it's a hitch until it's a hitch -- if the route is run well.
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